The Arizona Republic

In a four-page memo sent to Republican legislators Monday, Arizona GOP Chairman Randy Pullen asks lawmakers to rally around the state's new employer-sanctions law.

The measure, House Bill 2779, goes into effect Jan. 1. Pullen writes that polling commissioned by the state party shows strong public support for the law, and opposition to an even stricter proposal that could be headed for the 2008 ballot. Pullen has previously made public his opposition to the initiative, headed by former gubernatorial candidate Don Goldwater.

The following is the text of Pullen's letter:

TO: ARIZONA REPUBLICAN LEGISLATORS

FROM: RANDY PULLEN

SUBJECT: HB2779 POLITICAL UPDATE

DATE: AUGUST 20, 2007
There are moments in politics, both good and bad, which define an election cycle. The 1994 election cycle was dominated by the Contract with America, and with Hillary Clinton’s failed attempt to socialize our nation’s heath care system. The 2006 election cycle was dominated by Iraq-fatigue, scandal-fatigue, incompetence-fatigue and Bush-fatigue (the last a frequent and not-unexpected trend for second-off-year-elections with every two-term president).
Here at the Arizona Republican Party, I have made no secret that restoring the legislative majorities of the pre-2006 elections is my number-one priority this election cycle. I firmly believe that if we are successful in turning out the vote for Republicans at the local and legislative level, our top-of-the-ticket races will benefit.
The reverse, as we witnessed last year, isn’t always true, however. And with larger Republican majorities in the State House and State Senate in mind, we have looked very closely at our fundraising, our district targeting, our candidate recruitment in each district, and our voter registration, which will soon be underway in full-swing. In addition, we have recently undertaken some very important survey research work, and that is the purpose of my letter to you today.
From July 24-25, 2007, the Arizona Republican Party conducted a public opinion poll through Rodrigues-Wilson-Tarrance, a national survey research firm based out of Washington, DC. (You may recognize Lance Tarrance’s name: he founded not only the Tarrance Group, but also Gallup China, among his many accomplishments – and is generally considered the “dean” of Republican polling in America today). This survey centered largely around HB 2779 and what we believe will be its significant impact on next year’s elections.
Before I share with you the summary results found by this survey, let me clarify that this survey was taken statewide of 500 “likely November 2008 general election voters”, including all parties: Republican, Democrat and Independent. In addition, when asked from a list of issues which was most important when deciding your vote for Arizona State Legislature next year, the #1 response at 44% statewide was “securing the border with Mexico”.
First, concerning the “root causes” of illegal immigration, 43% of likely voters say “the promise of jobs for illegal workers” is most responsible. Another 30% blame “government’s failure to secure the border”, and 16% blame “the lure of the welfare system and free benefits”. Concerning HB 2779 and proposed initiatives from both the right and left, survey respondents were read a series of random statements concerning the workplace enforcement law recently passed by the legislature and signed into law by the governor.
Here is what we learned:
• 73% SUPPOR73% SUPPORT (53% strongly) the workplace enforcement law; 21% oppose it (11% strongly);
• 73% SUPPORT (45% strongly) the governor calling a special legislative session to correct technical problems with the workplace enforcement law that do not change the intent of the new law nor the penalties for knowingly employing an unauthorized illegal alien; and 14% oppose such an action (9% strongly);
• 54% OPPOSE (36% strongly) a proposed ballot initiative being circulated that would replace the current workplace enforcement law with a law that would permanently revoke a business’s license on the first offense for knowingly hiring an illegal alien; and 39% support it (25% strongly);
• 57% OPPOSE (39% strongly) a ballot initiative being proposed by several prominent state business leaders that would greatly weaken the new workplace enforcement law; and 29% support it (13% strongly).
In short, likely general election voters want HB2779 to be given a chance to work. In fact, the law passed by the Republican legislature brings together Democrats, Republicans and Independents in a very measurable way.
Among likely general election voters (LV’s), HB 2779 is SUPPORTED by:
• 73% of Republicans, 73% of Democrats and 75% of Independents
• 78% of men, 69% of women
• 74% of Caucasians (including 79% of Caucasian Democrats), 74% of African Americans, 68% of Hispanics
• 74% of LVs making less than $40k/year, 72% of LVs making $40-75k/year, 77% of LVs making more than $75k/year
• 81% of conservatives (including 79% of conservative Republicans, 80% of conservative Independents and 89% of conservative Democrats), 68% of moderates, 70% of liberals
Not only is the support for HB2779 wide, it is also deep – and unifying for our party. Similarly, however, support for the LAW initiative is significantly less, with a majority of the state’s likely general election voters next year opposed to the initiative. The reasoning behind their opposition is simple: the initiative is too strict, it is too rigid, and it needlessly replaces a good law which hasn’t been given a chance yet to work.
The American and Arizonan voter is a positive idealist who wants to be able to have faith in government and faith in the world around him. Likely general election voters want to be proven wrong about a piece of legislation or a public official before they will kick them out of office for scandal or incompetence – rarely is it done proactively (ours is a nation designed intentionally by the Founding Fathers to embrace the stability of the status quo, for better or worse). And today, Arizona voters are looking hopefully to HB 2779 as the solution to one of our state’s unique and important border security problems: the supply of illegal jobs.
For the Arizona Republican Party, however, the opportunity is great for 2008 to capitalize on HB 2779 if we can rally behind this legislation. It polls better than any other issue we have tested or seen tested. In these divisive times, this Republican-passed piece of legislation approaches in popularity among opposition Democrats in a way our party hasn’t seen since President Bush held a megaphone on near the fallen Trade Center towers and proclaimed to terrorists around the world that the American people were listening and would respond.
This legislation polls nearly that well. But as we saw with President Bush’s popularity in the war on terror, political popularity must be maintained. Certainly, it cannot be undercut from within one’s own party. HB2779’s greatest challenge right now doesn’t come from the
Democrats, but from two sources:
First, it comes from the supporters of the LAW initiative who don’t believe HB2779 will be allowed to work – the key word being “allowed”. Their message boils down to this: “The legislature isn’t trustworthy and will buckle under political pressure. They will sell us out like typical politicians, and despite having done the right thing and passed the toughest workplace enforcement law in the nation, we need to pull the rug out from under their feet and pass an even tougher law ourselves. We need to punish them proactively to keep them from even thinking of straying.”
Of course, this is pure fantasy, but it’s this sort of thinking that is doing visible harm to our party and our legislative efforts to retain and rebuild our larger majority, to register voters, to recruit new PC’s, and to raise funds from the grassroots.
The LAW Initiative is OPPOSEOPPOSED by 54% of likely general election voters statewide, including:
• 58% of CD1 likely voters; 67% of CD5 LVs, 64% of CD6 LVs, 60% of Phoenix LVs, 52% of border district LV’s, 56% of northern district LVs
• 54% of conservatives, 58% of moderates, 53% of liberals
• 57% of Republicans, 56% of Independents, 50% of Democrats
• 57% of men, 52% of women
In short, initial opposition to the LAW initiative is also wide across the political spectrum, and shows no compelling justification for support of the initiative among any major demographic group – again because most people believe either the legislation will work, or they are willing to at least give it a chance.
Similar testing was done on the proposed (but yet unwritten) Wake Up Arizona (WUA) initiative, which was found to be even more unpopular than the LAW initiative. Unfortunately, WUA supporters like Gordon James have been even more vocal in the media about supposed failures of HB2779 – but their comments, on behalf of some of Arizona’s employers, unfortunately come across as credible to many readers.
“Under both the current law and the [LAW] proposed ballot initiative, if a supervisor wherUnder where you work has knowledge that someone there is working illegally, your company can be shut down and you’ll be out of work,” wrote Gordon C. James of Gordon James Public Relations and the Wake Up Arizona campaign (The Arizona Republic, August 19, 2007). Of course, as you know, this inflammatory rhetoric is simply untrue – but it not only sells newspapers, it potentially drives public opinion.
In the same op-ed, Mr. James went on to write, “Never mind that you might have legal status to work in this country. Never mind that you did nothing wrong. The law is so broad and so poorly crafted that it makes no distinction between those who have and those who have not broken the law.”
Again, this is simply untrue. However, what Mr. James wrote for every newspaper-subscribing voter to read, is that the Republican-controlled legislature is incompetent. If you have heard either me or Sean McCaffrey, our executive director, speak recently about election trends for 2008 and beyond, you will likely have heard us assert that one of the biggest themes for the upcoming election cycles will be this: competence.
Not only is Mr. James undermining the single biggest campaign issue available to legislative Republicans for the 2008 election cycle, their mendacious rhetoric is also on-target to hit the majority as a whole and erode confidence in Republican leadership in Arizona. Because Governor Napolitano is not up for re-election, she can’t be blamed for signing this or any other bill into law.
My request is this: while talking with your constituents, friends, neighbors, media, colleagues, and party faithful, please help get our side of the story out: that OUR Republican Legislature is being responsive to OUR state’s needs. HB2779 should be yielding OUR biggest victory next year– but unfortunately the two biggest challenges we face right now are coming from people who should be on OUR side.
If you would like to meet to go over the results of this survey in greater detail, please contact Sean McCaffrey at (602) 957-7770. As always, if you have any questions, comments or would like to talk about this or other matters, please don’t hesitate to give me a call any time.
Thank you for your service and your dedication to the people of this state.
-RP